96% — Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 265,000 jobs Leader: Above 235,000 jobs at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 10 contracts · $32K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:06 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: This contracts estimates the likelihood that Washington state's Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services sector will employ more than 265,000 people in seasonally adjusted terms by December 2026. The current 37% probability reflects moderate skepticism about reaching this threshold within the next four months. Employment growth in this sector depends on tech hiring trends, which have been volatile following the 2022-2023 downturn, and regional economic conditions in Washington's major metros (Seattle, Puget Sound). The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases monthly state employment data, with the December 2026 figure scheduled for January 2027 release, providing the definitive resolution. Market pricing suggests traders see it more likely the sector stays below 265,000 jobs than exceeds it, though the graduated contract structure indicates meaningful probability mass at higher thresholds. Key factors: - Current Washington PST employment level as of mid-2026 and recent month-over-month hiring trends in the sector - National tech sector hiring momentum and any major layoffs or expansion announcements at Seattle-area firms (Amazon, Microsoft, etc.) - Broader U.S. economic conditions and Federal Reserve policy stance between now and December 2026 - Seasonal patterns in PST hiring and whether December 2026 aligns with typical year-end employment changes - BLS release of November 2026 preliminary data in December, which typically precedes final December figures released in January 2027 Contracts: - Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 235,000 jobs?: Above 235,000 jobs — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 240,000 jobs?: Above 240,000 jobs — 95¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 23%) - Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 245,000 jobs?: Above 245,000 jobs — 94¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 8%) - Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 255,000 jobs?: Above 255,000 jobs — 92¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 9%) - Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 250,000 jobs?: Above 250,000 jobs — 91¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 16%) - Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 260,000 jobs?: Above 260,000 jobs — 53¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 15%) - Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 265,000 jobs?: Above 265,000 jobs — 20¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 17%) - Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 270,000 jobs?: Above 270,000 jobs — 9¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:50.932Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/watechemp Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Washington%20statewide%20seasonally%20adjusted%20employment%20in%20Professional%2C%20Scientific%2C%20and%20Technical%20Services%20for%20December%202026%20be%20above%20265%2C000%20jobs Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev