33% — Will Tie win the 1st Half Kalshi 33% · 20 contracts · $14K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 01:50:47 UTC Why this matters: A 29% tie probability in the 1st Half reflects the distribution of expectations across competing nations, with individual country win probabilities ranging from 6% to 44%. This aggregate suggests relatively balanced competitive outcomes or significant uncertainty about how the contest will unfold. The tie probability is inversely related to conviction in any single winner: if one nation's prospects strengthen, the tie probability typically declines as capital shifts to that outcome. Conversely, if conditions create more ambiguity about potential winners, tie odds may rise. The main drivers are the relative strength assessments of participating nations and any structural rules that affect the likelihood of identical scores or draws. Key upcoming developments would include any official announcement of final rules, participant confirmations, or historical precedent data that clarifies how often ties actually occur in comparable competitions. Key factors: - Individual country win probabilities sum to approximately 84%, leaving 16% unaccounted for in named outcomes, suggesting either unlisted competitors or structural uncertainty - Japan carries the highest single-nation probability at 44%, making a Japanese victory the market's base case, while New Zealand at 6% is considered least likely among listed options - The tie probability of 29% represents meaningful uncertainty about contest resolution, neither dominant nor negligible compared to leading individual outcomes - Trading volume concentrated in Iran ($3106 24h vol) and Mexico ($2138 24h vol) suggests these nations drive current market dynamics and sentiment shifts - No date or resolution event is specified in available data, indicating this market may depend on undefined temporal boundaries or announced competitive details Contracts: - Will Iran win the 1st Half?: Iran wins 1st Half — 20¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 42%) - Will New Zealand win the 1st Half?: New Zealand wins 1st Half — 7¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 14%) - Will Argentina win the 1st Half?: Argentina wins 1st Half — 63¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 11%) - Will Jordan win the 1st Half?: Jordan wins 1st Half — 6¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 9%) - Will Portugal win the 1st Half?: Portugal wins 1st Half — 38¢ Kalshi $780 (weight 5%) - Will Croatia win the 1st Half?: Croatia wins 1st Half — 40¢ Kalshi $706 (weight 5%) - Will Spain win the 1st Half?: Spain wins 1st Half — 46¢ Kalshi $415 (weight 3%) - Will Tie win the 1st Half?: Tie 1st Half — 44¢ Kalshi $288 (weight 2%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T01:20:49.153Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wc1h Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tie%20win%20the%201st%20Half Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev