23% — Will both teams score in the 1st Half
Leader: Both Teams To Score - 1st Half at 23% · Kalshi 23% · 13 contracts · $19K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 23:44:37 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market assesses the likelihood that both teams will score at least once during the first half of an upcoming match. At 14%, traders currently view this outcome as unlikely, reflecting expectations of defensive dominance, low-scoring play, or one team's offensive strength overshadowing the other. The probability is driven by historical first-half scoring patterns for the specific teams involved and typical defensive intensity early in matches. Key factors pushing the probability higher would include either team's tendency to concede early goals or aggressive attacking strategy from both sides; factors pushing it lower would be strong defensive records or a significant talent gap favoring one team. Resolution depends on the match outcome itself, which will occur on the scheduled game date.

Key factors:
- Historical first-half goal-scoring rates for both teams over the most recent 10-15 matches
- Head-to-head defensive records during opening 45 minutes, including shots conceded and goals allowed
- Current injury status or tactical adjustments that might affect either team's attacking or defensive setup
- League-wide or competition-specific first-half scoring trends (whether first halves typically produce fewer goals than full matches)
- Relative attacking quality and conversion efficiency of both teams compared to their defensive vulnerabilities

Contracts:
- Will both teams score in the 1st Half?: Both Teams To Score - 1st Half — 23¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 75%)
- Will both teams score in the 1st Half?: Both Teams To Score - 1st Half — 17¢ Kalshi $664 (weight 3%)
- Will both teams score in the 1st Half?: Both Teams To Score - 1st Half — 17¢ Kalshi $425 (weight 2%)
- Will both teams score in the 1st Half?: Both Teams To Score - 1st Half — 16¢ Kalshi $470 (weight 2%)
- Will both teams score in the 1st Half?: Both Teams To Score - 1st Half — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will both teams score in the 1st Half?: Both Teams To Score - 1st Half — 15¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 11%)
- Will both teams score in the 1st Half?: Both Teams To Score - 1st Half — 15¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%)
- Will both teams score in the 1st Half?: Both Teams To Score - 1st Half — 14¢ Kalshi $134 (weight 1%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:52.655Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wc1hbtts
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20both%20teams%20score%20in%20the%201st%20Half
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev