42% — Will the 1st half score be Draw 1-1
Leader: Draw 1H 0-0 at 42% · Kalshi 42% · 11 contracts · $11K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 23:43:54 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents the likelihood that the first half of an upcoming match ends in a 1-1 scoreline. At 15%, this outcome ranks slightly below the leading scenario (0-0 draw at 15%) and reflects modest trader confidence in exactly one goal per team in 45 minutes. The probability depends on both teams' attacking efficiency and defensive solidity early in the match. A scoreless first half currently appears more probable, while single-goal advantages (Netherlands 1-0 at 11%, Sweden 1-0 at 5%) fragment the remaining probability mass. The match itself will resolve this contract once the first half concludes, determining whether the exact 1-1 outcome occurs or one of the 17 other possible scorelines materializes.

Key factors:
- 0-0 draw is the modal outcome at 15%, suggesting defensive setup or cautious play is expected in the early stages
- Netherlands 1-0 at 11% is the second-most-common single-goal scenario, indicating moderate offensive threat from one team
- Sweden 1-0 at 5% and other outcomes fragment probability, with no alternative scoring scenario exceeding 11%
- Total trading volume of $75+ across top contracts indicates meaningful market interest despite relatively low absolute prices
- Match schedule and kickoff time will determine when this contract resolves; no data on match date provided in current market snapshot

Contracts:
- Will the 1st half score be Draw 0-0?: Draw 1H 0-0 — 42¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 10%)
- Will the 1st half score be Draw 0-0?: Draw 1H 0-0 — 23¢ Kalshi $201 (weight 2%)
- Will the 1st half score be Draw 0-0?: Draw 1H 0-0 — 22¢ Kalshi $693 (weight 6%)
- Will the 1st half score be Spain wins 1-0?: Spain wins 1H 1-0 — 20¢ Kalshi $384 (weight 3%)
- Will the 1st half score be Draw 1-1?: Draw 1H 1-1 — 9¢ Kalshi $500 (weight 4%)
- Will the 1st half score be Uruguay wins 1-0?: Uruguay wins 1H 1-0 — 8¢ Kalshi $384 (weight 3%)
- Will the 1st half score be Spain wins 2-0?: Spain wins 1H 2-0 — 8¢ Kalshi $268 (weight 2%)
- Will the 1st half score be Spain wins 2-1?: Spain wins 1H 2-1 — 4¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 13%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:52.345Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "42% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wc1hscore
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%201st%20half%20score%20be%20Draw%201-1
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev