19% — Brazil wins by over 1.5 goals in the 1st Half Kalshi 19% · 14 contracts · $50K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 22:06:21 UTC Why this matters: This contract resolves true if Brazil scores more than 1.5 goals in the first half of an upcoming match, currently priced at 4% probability. First-half goal markets typically reflect the compressed timeframe and defensive setup patterns that teams employ early in matches. The low probability suggests Brazil is either facing a strong defensive opponent, considered unlikely to break through early, or playing a team that historically maintains compact defending in opening periods. Market pricing across similar contracts shows Mexico at 11% as a relative outlier, while most other countries cluster near 3-4%, indicating these are generally rare events. The main drivers of this specific probability are Brazil's attacking form heading into the match, opponent defensive capabilities, and historical first-half scoring patterns in comparable fixtures. Resolution depends on the scheduled match date and final scoreline during the first 45 minutes. Key factors: - First-half goals require early breakthrough, typically 20-30% less frequent than full-match scoring across major competitions - Brazil's recent form in opening periods and opponent's defensive organization will directly influence execution opportunities - Mexico contract trading at 11% (nearly 3x this level) suggests significant variance in perceived first-half scoring likelihood by opponent - Historical data on this specific matchup and both teams' typical first-half tactical approaches would show baseline probability - Team sheet composition, including attacking lineup availability and defensive personnel, affects early-phase dynamic potential Contracts: - France wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half?: France wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals — 16¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 30%) - Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half?: Spain wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals — 15¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 18%) - Argentina wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half?: Argentina wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals — 29¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 18%) - Portugal wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half?: Portugal wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals — 11¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 12%) - Norway wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half?: Norway wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals — 5¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 11%) - Canada wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half?: Canada wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals — 11¢ Kalshi $918 (weight 2%) - Senegal wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half?: Senegal wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals — 26¢ Kalshi $886 (weight 2%) - Belgium wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half?: Belgium wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals — 30¢ Kalshi $834 (weight 2%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T21:20:50.206Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wc1hspread Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Brazil%20wins%20by%20over%201.5%20goals%20in%20the%201st%20Half Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev