30% — Over 0.5 1H goals scored
Kalshi 30% · 19 contracts · $33K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 03:47:27 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 30% probability that at least one goal will be scored in the first half of an upcoming match. The relatively low probability suggests expectations of a defensive or low-scoring opening period. Key factors influencing this level include the teams' typical first-half scoring patterns, their current form and attacking capabilities, defensive strength, and any relevant tactical considerations. Market participants appear to distinguish between this outcome and higher-goal scenarios—note the sharp price drop from 63¢ for 0.5+ goals to just 5¢ for 2.5+ goals, indicating substantial consensus that if scoring occurs, it's more likely to be limited. The market will resolve definitively once the first half concludes and official goal tallies are recorded.

Key factors:
- Difference between 0.5+ goal price (63¢) and 1.5+ goal price (27¢) suggests traders expect either no goals or exactly one goal as most likely outcomes
- Contract volume concentration ($45-67 24h vol on goal-related markets) indicates active pricing but relatively modest liquidity compared to typical major match markets
- The teams' recent first-half goal averages and defensive records will materially affect probability—teams averaging fewer than 0.5 goals per half would justify lower prices
- Match context unknown from provided data (league, teams, importance, conditions) but would typically drive 30% baseline significantly higher or lower
- Price of 30% implies roughly 1-in-3 chance, consistent with historical data that suggests many matches feature scoreless first halves

Contracts:
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored?: Over 1.5 1H goals scored — 40¢ Kalshi $11K (weight 34%)
- Over 0.5 1H goals scored?: Over 0.5 1H goals scored — 78¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 11%)
- Over 2.5 1H goals scored?: Over 2.5 1H goals scored — 20¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 8%)
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored?: Over 1.5 1H goals scored — 22¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 7%)
- Over 2.5 1H goals scored?: Over 2.5 1H goals scored — 16¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 7%)
- Over 0.5 1H goals scored?: Over 0.5 1H goals scored — 58¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 6%)
- Over 3.5 1H goals scored?: Over 3.5 1H goals scored — 5¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- Over 2.5 1H goals scored?: Over 2.5 1H goals scored — 5¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%)
- ... and 11 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:49.363Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wc1htotal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Over%200.5%201H%20goals%20scored
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev