33% — Will Tie be the result of the 2nd Half
Kalshi 33% · 6 contracts · $20K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 04:26:25 UTC

Why this matters:
This market tracks the likelihood that the second half of a match ends in a tie. At 30%, the probability reflects moderate expectations for a tied outcome, suggesting ties are considered possible but not the most likely result. The current level appears driven by the specific teams involved and their historical tendency to draw in similar competitions. The match resolution itself will determine the outcome definitively—ties occur at a measurable rate in football competitions, typically ranging from 20-35% depending on the teams and match context. Key factors include team offensive capabilities, defensive stability, and whether the teams prioritize attacking or defensive tactics in the second half. The match will settle this prediction on its scheduled completion date.

Key factors:
- Historical draw rate between these specific teams in head-to-head or recent matchups
- Offensive and defensive strength of competing teams, which influences likelihood of scoring stalemate
- Team motivation and tactical approach (aggressive attacking vs. defensive positioning)
- Current market pricing at 17¢ per contract indicates low trading volume, suggesting limited consensus on true probability
- Comparison to win probabilities for individual teams (Iraq at 8¢, Germany at 46¢) shows draws weighted between top contenders

Contracts:
- Will France win the 2nd Half?: France wins 2nd Half — 38¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 72%)
- Will Tie be the result of the 2nd Half?: Tie 2nd Half — 36¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 17%)
- Will Spain win the 2nd Half?: Spain wins 2nd Half — 26¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 8%)
- Will England win the 2nd Half?: England wins 2nd Half — 31¢ Kalshi $323 (weight 2%)
- Will Argentina win the 2nd Half?: Argentina wins 2nd Half — 29¢ Kalshi $234 (weight 1%)
- Will Tie be the result of the 2nd Half?: Tie 2nd Half — 39¢ Kalshi $89 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T04:20:48.676Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wc2h
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tie%20be%20the%20result%20of%20the%202nd%20Half
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev