23% — Will both teams score in the 2nd Half
Leader: Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half at 23% · Kalshi 23% · 11 contracts · $771 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 01:51:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 23% probability reflects trader expectations that both teams will score in the second half of an upcoming match. The current pricing suggests this outcome is considered unlikely but plausible—roughly one chance in four. Factors pushing this probability include team defensive capabilities in the second half, fatigue levels affecting both offensive and defensive performance, and historical scoring patterns in similar matchups. Weather conditions, tactical adjustments made at halftime, and any injuries that emerged in the first half would move this estimate up or down. The key catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the actual second-half performance once the match resumes. Traders are currently split across several contract prices (ranging from 17¢ to 24¢), indicating genuine disagreement about the likelihood rather than market consensus.

Key factors:
- Second-half defensive performance and substitution patterns of both teams
- Historical frequency of both teams scoring in second halves for these specific opponents
- Current goal differential and match state at halftime (impacts risk-taking behavior)
- Player availability and fatigue levels entering the second half
- Weather and field conditions that could affect attacking transitions

Contracts:
- Will both teams score in the 2nd Half?: Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half — 23¢ Kalshi $255 (weight 33%)
- Will both teams score in the 2nd Half?: Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will both teams score in the 2nd Half?: Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will both teams score in the 2nd Half?: Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will both teams score in the 2nd Half?: Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half — 21¢ Kalshi $264 (weight 34%)
- Will both teams score in the 2nd Half?: Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half — 20¢ Kalshi $198 (weight 26%)
- Will both teams score in the 2nd Half?: Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will both teams score in the 2nd Half?: Both Teams To Score - 2nd Half — 18¢ Kalshi $41 (weight 5%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T01:20:50.481Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wc2hbtts
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20both%20teams%20score%20in%20the%202nd%20Half
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev