45% — Over 1.5 2H goals scored
Kalshi 45% · 17 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 15:23:25 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates a 44% chance that at least two goals will be scored during the second half of an upcoming match. The current level reflects typical second-half scoring patterns, which generally see fewer goals than first halves due to tactical adjustments and player fatigue. Key drivers of this probability include the offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerability of both teams, weather conditions that may affect play, and substitution patterns that typically occur after halftime. The resolution will depend entirely on the final match outcome, with the actual goal count determining whether the threshold of 1.5 goals (meaning 2 or more) is reached. Factors that could shift expectations include recent team form, injury status of key players, and the specific tactical approach each side adopts after the break.

Key factors:
- Average second-half goal totals have historically been 30-40% lower than first-half totals in similar competitions
- Teams trailing at halftime typically increase attacking intensity, while those ahead may adopt defensive strategies
- Contract pricing inconsistency (33¢ to 42¢ on identical Over 1.5 second-half outcomes) suggests market uncertainty or liquidity constraints
- Weather conditions and pitch quality at match time can materially affect goal-scoring probability in the second half
- Substitution patterns and player fatigue acceleration in the final 45 minutes create different scoring dynamics than the opening period

Contracts:
- Over 0.5 2H goals scored?: Over 0.5 2H goals scored — 72¢ Kalshi $609 (weight 55%)
- Over 0.5 2H goals scored?: Over 0.5 2H goals scored — 81¢ Kalshi $125 (weight 11%)
- Over 2.5 2H goals scored?: Over 2.5 2H goals scored — 22¢ Kalshi $109 (weight 10%)
- Over 0.5 2H goals scored?: Over 0.5 2H goals scored — 64¢ Kalshi $85 (weight 8%)
- Over 1.5 2H goals scored?: Over 1.5 2H goals scored — 35¢ Kalshi $67 (weight 6%)
- Over 1.5 2H goals scored?: Over 1.5 2H goals scored — 47¢ Kalshi $41 (weight 4%)
- Over 1.5 2H goals scored?: Over 1.5 2H goals scored — 49¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 2%)
- Over 2.5 2H goals scored?: Over 2.5 2H goals scored — 11¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 2%)
- ... and 9 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T15:20:50.240Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wc2htotal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Over%201.5%202H%20goals%20scored
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev