6% — Will Spain win the third-place match at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Kalshi 6% · 12 contracts · $16K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 23:42:37 UTC Why this matters: This contract reflects the implied probability that Spain reaches and wins the third-place playoff at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. At 8%, the market prices Spain as roughly tied with England but trailing Brazil and Germany among nations considered capable of reaching this match. The probability depends primarily on Spain avoiding elimination in the group stage and knockout rounds, then performing well enough to finish fourth overall—a relatively narrow outcome. The tournament begins in June 2026, at which point all uncertainty around group performance, bracket positioning, and team form will resolve. Spain's actual performance through the group stage and Round of 16 will be the primary driver of whether this contract moves significantly. Key factors: - Spain must finish no lower than 4th in their group and avoid early elimination in the Round of 16 to reach the third-place match - Spain's current FIFA ranking and recent tournament performance relative to likely competitors (France, Germany, Brazil, England, Netherlands) determine baseline expectations - The tournament draw and Spain's specific group composition, determined prior to the tournament start, affects their probability of advancing to the knockout stages - Spain's injury status and squad depth heading into June 2026 will influence competitive strength throughout the tournament - Historical patterns show European teams have won the third-place match in recent World Cups, which may correlate with Spain's 8% valuation relative to some non-European competitors Contracts: - Will Spain win the third-place match at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Spain — 12¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 20%) - Will Brazil win the third-place match at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Brazil — 4¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 18%) - Will USA win the third-place match at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: USA — 8¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 18%) - Will Argentina win the third-place match at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Argentina — 12¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 11%) - Will England win the third-place match at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: England — 7¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 11%) - Will Portugal win the third-place match at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Portugal — 6¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 9%) - Will France win the third-place match at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: France — 3¢ Kalshi $766 (weight 5%) - Will Morocco win the third-place match at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Morocco — 5¢ Kalshi $508 (weight 3%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:50.875Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wc3rdplace Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Spain%20win%20the%20third-place%20match%20at%20the%202026%20Men's%20FIFA%20World%20Cup Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev