53% — Will Amazon advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final Kalshi 53% · 20 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:35:06 UTC Why this matters: This probability indicates that traders estimate a 50% chance Amazon will purchase advertising time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final on July 19, 2026. The even split reflects uncertainty about Amazon's marketing strategy, as the company has historically prioritized digital advertising over traditional broadcast slots. Key considerations include Amazon's recent shift toward premium sports partnerships, the advertising rates for World Cup Final slots, and competitive positioning relative to other tech and retail companies. Market signals show comparable tech firms like Samsung (80¢) and Nike (89¢) have higher probabilities of appearing, suggesting traders view the World Cup Final as less central to Amazon's advertising mix than traditional retail or athletic brands. The resolution hinges entirely on whether Amazon's name or ads appear during the broadcast window of the final match. Key factors: - Amazon's historical advertising spending has concentrated in digital channels and streaming rather than live broadcast sports events - The 2026 World Cup Final broadcast will occur on July 19, 2026, with official confirmation of all major advertisers typically announced 2-4 weeks prior - Nike (89¢) and Samsung (80¢) command significantly higher probabilities than Amazon, indicating traders expect legacy consumer brands to prioritize World Cup advertising more heavily - Amazon has increased sports marketing investments in recent years through AWS partnerships and sports streaming deals, providing a precedent for major broadcast commitment - World Cup Final ad slots represent premium inventory with prices typically exceeding $5 million per 30-second spot, constraining the number of advertiser slots available Contracts: - Will Disney advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Disney — 73¢ Kalshi $526 (weight 13%) - Will Pepsi advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Pepsi — 75¢ Kalshi $483 (weight 12%) - Will Modelo advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Modelo — 84¢ Kalshi $450 (weight 11%) - Will Apple advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Apple — 55¢ Kalshi $447 (weight 11%) - Will Netflix advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Netflix — 49¢ Kalshi $338 (weight 8%) - Will DoorDash advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: DoorDash — 88¢ Kalshi $321 (weight 8%) - Will Walmart advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Walmart — 16¢ Kalshi $293 (weight 7%) - Will Coinbase advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Coinbase — 21¢ Kalshi $278 (weight 7%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:50.877Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "53% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcads Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Amazon%20advertise%20during%20the%202026%20World%20Cup%20Final Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev