12% — Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ assists
Kalshi 12% · 9 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 01:50:15 UTC

Why this matters:
This reflects a market-implied 11% chance that Ayoub El Kaabi records at least one assist in an upcoming match or period. El Kaabi's assist probability is notably lower than comparable attacking midfielders and wingers in the contracts shown—Raphinha trades at 18%, Vinicius Junior at 13%, and Akram Afif at 11%. The gap suggests markets may be pricing in either reduced playing time, a deeper bench role, or fewer attacking opportunities compared to peers. Resolution depends on official match statistics and the specific timeframe of the event. Volume remains modest at $50 in 24-hour trading, indicating limited liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. Shifts in this probability would likely reflect lineup changes, fixture difficulty adjustments, or team tactical announcements closer to the event date.

Key factors:
- El Kaabi's recent playing time and minutes allocation relative to competing attacking players on his team
- Comparative assist rates of similar-positioned players in recent matches to establish baseline performance expectations
- The specific opponent's defensive profile and how it typically defends against through balls or cutback plays
- Whether El Kaabi has been deployed primarily as a scorer versus a playmaker in recent tactical setups
- Official team news regarding injuries, suspensions, or tactical changes that could affect his role or field position

Contracts:
- Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists?: Mohamed Salah: 1+ — 6¢ Kalshi $680 (weight 50%)
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists?: Lamine Yamal: 1+ — 21¢ Kalshi $499 (weight 37%)
- Pedri: 1+ assists?: Pedri: 1+ — 13¢ Kalshi $172 (weight 13%)
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists?: Jude Bellingham: 1+ — 5¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Dailon Livramento: 1+ assists?: Dailon Livramento: 1+ — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists?: Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists?: Jeremy Doku: 1+ — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists?: Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T01:20:49.831Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcast
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Ayoub%20El%20Kaabi%3A%201%2B%20assists
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev