32% — Will Mexico be the best performing host nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Kalshi 32% · 3 contracts · $84 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:32:58 UTC

Contracts:
- Will USA be the best performing host nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: USA — 40¢ Kalshi $81 (weight 97%)
- Will Mexico be the best performing host nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Mexico — 36¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 3%)
- Will Canada be the best performing host nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Canada — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.104Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcbesthost
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Mexico%20be%20the%20best%20performing%20host%20nation%20in%20the%202026%20Men's%20FIFA%20World%20Cup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev