46% — 11+ corners
Kalshi 46% · 20 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 01:51:00 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents a 47% probability that a specific event will produce 11 or more corners, based on aggregated market pricing. The current level reflects the midpoint between pessimism and optimism about the frequency of this occurrence. Key factors driving the probability include historical baseline rates for similar events and any recent changes in circumstances that would increase or decrease the likelihood of reaching the 11-corner threshold. The probability appears moderately calibrated given the related contracts showing 73% confidence in 7+ corners and 50% confidence in 9+ corners, suggesting markets see diminishing likelihood as the threshold rises. Resolution will depend on actual data collection when the event occurs, at which point the outcome becomes verifiable and contracts settle accordingly.

Key factors:
- Historical average corner frequency for comparable events determines the baseline expectation
- Current market shows 73% probability for 7+ corners versus 47% for 11+, indicating steep dropoff at higher thresholds
- The contract pricing structure (27¢ for 11+, 50¢ for 9+, 61¢ for 8+) reflects consistent probabilistic ordering
- Market liquidity is minimal ($0 trading volume), suggesting limited information flow and price discovery
- Actual outcome becomes deterministic at contract settlement when corner count is finalized

Contracts:
- 12+ corners?: 12+ corners — 31¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 15%)
- 8+ corners?: 8+ corners — 55¢ Kalshi $963 (weight 15%)
- 12+ corners?: 12+ corners — 26¢ Kalshi $715 (weight 11%)
- 11+ corners?: 11+ corners — 26¢ Kalshi $680 (weight 11%)
- 9+ corners?: 9+ corners — 43¢ Kalshi $490 (weight 8%)
- 11+ corners?: 11+ corners — 20¢ Kalshi $352 (weight 5%)
- 9+ corners?: 9+ corners — 51¢ Kalshi $275 (weight 4%)
- 10+ corners?: 10+ corners — 43¢ Kalshi $275 (weight 4%)
- ... and 12 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T01:20:49.009Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "46% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wccorners
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=11%2B%20corners
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev