27% — Will the fastest goal be scored in the 2nd minute or earlier across all 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup matches
Kalshi 27% · 1 contracts · $883 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 23:48:26 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates the likelihood that a goal will be scored within the first two minutes across all 64 matches of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The 6% probability reflects historical rarity of extremely early goals combined with modern defensive tactics and goalkeeper positioning in international tournament play. Early goals depend on tactical setup—teams employing aggressive high-pressing systems increase this likelihood, while cautious opening phases reduce it. The World Cup's format, with 64 matches starting at different times and involving diverse team strategies, creates multiple opportunities for an early goal, yet the data suggests such outcomes remain uncommon. Resolution occurs once the tournament concludes in late 2026. Key drivers include team composition changes from qualifying, weather conditions affecting early match tempo, and whether opening fixtures feature attacking-minded teams. Historical World Cup data and current team form leading into the tournament will significantly influence final odds.

Key factors:
- Historical frequency of goals in minutes 1-2 across previous World Cups and qualifier matches
- Distribution of attacking versus defensive team tactics among the 32 qualified nations entering the tournament
- Early match conditions including weather, pitch conditions, and referee interpretation of physical play in opening minutes
- Fixture scheduling and whether high-attacking-intent teams face each other in early matches
- Goalkeeper distribution and modern defensive positioning trends in international football circa 2026

Contracts:
- Will the fastest goal be scored in the 1st minute across all 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup matches?: 1st minute — 27¢ Kalshi $883 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:52.486Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcfastestgoal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20fastest%20goal%20be%20scored%20in%20the%202nd%20minute%20or%20earlier%20across%20all%202026%20Men's%20FIFA%20World%20Cup%20matches
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev