86% — Will Any Halftime Performer perform Boy With Luv at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium Leader: Dai Dai at 86% · Kalshi 86% · 20 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 03:31:01 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that the song "Boy With Luv" will be performed by at least one halftime performer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final on July 19, 2026. The 86% probability suggests strong confidence in this outcome, likely driven by the song's global popularity and the performer lineup's typical inclusion of well-known tracks. The main factor affecting this probability would be the official announcement of the halftime performers and their confirmed setlist, which typically occurs days before the event. Secondary factors include artist choice, time constraints within the 12-15 minute typical halftime window, and whether the song fits the theme or narrative the performers intend to create. Uncertainty would decline significantly once organizers release the final performer roster and any pre-event promotional materials that hint at song selection. The event occurs in one week, making resolution imminent. Key factors: - Official halftime performer announcement has not yet occurred; the identity of performers determines setlist possibilities directly - "Boy With Luv" is a collaborative track by BTS and Halsey released in 2019 with over 1 billion streams; broader appeal increases inclusion likelihood if either artist performs - FIFA World Cup halftime shows typically feature 3-5 songs in a 12-15 minute window; fewer slots reduce probability of any specific song being selected - The 86% market price implies near-consensus belief in performance, suggesting participants expect either the confirmed performers to include international or pop artists with incentive to perform the track - Setlist confirmation usually occurs 3-7 days before the event; final performer announcement expected by July 15-17 would be the key resolution catalyst Contracts: - Will Any Halftime Performer perform Dai Dai at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Dai Dai — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Any Halftime Performer perform Hips Don't Lie at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Hips Don't Lie — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Any Halftime Performer perform Zoo at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Zoo — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Any Halftime Performer perform Chantaje at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Chantaje — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Any Halftime Performer perform TQG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: TQG — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Any Halftime Performer perform La Tortura at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: La Tortura — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Any Halftime Performer perform GIRL LIKE ME at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: GIRL LIKE ME — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Any Halftime Performer perform Waka Waka (This Time for Africa) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium?: Waka Waka (This Time for Africa) — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T03:20:52.081Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "86% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcfinalsongs Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Any%20Halftime%20Performer%20perform%20Boy%20With%20Luv%20at%20the%202026%20FIFA%20World%20Cup%20Final%20Halftime%20Show%20scheduled%20for%20July%2019%2C%202026%20at%20New%20York%20New%20Jersey%20Stadium Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev