13% — Lionel Messi
Kalshi 13% · 4 contracts · $28K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 04:27:34 UTC

Why this matters:
This 15% probability reflects the chance that Messi scores the first goal in a specific upcoming match. The current price sits between comparable odds for Harry Kane (18%) and well below Erling Haaland (13%), positioning Messi as a mid-tier contender. The primary factors influencing this level are Messi's recent playing time and form—whether he's currently in the squad and match fit—and the specific opponent's defensive profile. Recent trading volume of $2,458 suggests moderate interest. Resolution will occur once the designated match concludes and the first goalscorer is recorded. The probability may shift significantly closer to the match based on team lineup announcements, which typically occur 1-2 hours before kickoff and would clarify whether Messi starts or appears on the bench.

Key factors:
- Messi's recent appearances and minutes played in his current competition
- Whether Messi is confirmed in the starting lineup versus on the bench for the specific match
- The defending team's recent defensive record and vulnerability to first-goal scoring
- Messi's conversion rate on first-half shooting opportunities in recent matches
- Starting formation and tactical setup that determines Messi's positioning and shooting opportunities

Contracts:
- No Goal: First Goalscorer: No Goal — 6¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 54%)
- Jude Bellingham: First Goalscorer: Jude Bellingham — 10¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 28%)
- Lionel Messi: First Goalscorer: Lionel Messi — 18¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 11%)
- Harry Kane: First Goalscorer: Harry Kane — 16¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 7%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-14T04:20:50.428Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcfirstgoal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Lionel%20Messi
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev