29% — Will no goal be scored
Kalshi 29% · 18 contracts · $12K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 03:47:28 UTC

Why this matters:
This 40% probability indicates that odds-makers assess a roughly 2-in-5 chance that this match ends scoreless. The underlying contracts show strong market confidence that Argentina (67¢) or Norway (76¢) will score first if any goal occurs, suggesting these teams are viewed as offensive favorites. The probability is being driven by the relative attacking strength of the teams involved and baseline rates for 0-0 draws in competitive matches. Resolution depends on the actual match outcome, which will be determined when the game concludes and final statistics are recorded.

Key factors:
- Argentina and Norway combined represent 143¢ in first-goal probabilities, indicating market consensus that one of these two teams is most likely to score if goals are scored
- A 40% no-goal probability implies a 60% chance of at least one goal, consistent with typical scoring rates in international matches between these competitive levels
- Trading volume is concentrated in Argentina (67¢) and Norway (76¢) contracts, with minimal volume on lower-probability scorers, suggesting market focus on the likely goal-scoring team rather than the no-goal outcome
- The no-goal probability would increase if either team is significantly weakened by injuries or lineup changes before kickoff
- Final match outcome will be determined by actual play and will resolve this contract definitively when the game concludes

Contracts:
- Will no goal be scored?: No Goal — 18¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 31%)
- Will Argentina record the first goal of the game?: Argentina — 81¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 10%)
- Will Colombia record the first goal of the game?: Colombia — 31¢ Kalshi $905 (weight 8%)
- Will no goal be scored?: No Goal — 4¢ Kalshi $805 (weight 7%)
- Will Cape Verde record the first goal of the game?: Cape Verde — 44¢ Kalshi $764 (weight 6%)
- Will no goal be scored?: No Goal — 3¢ Kalshi $672 (weight 6%)
- Will no goal be scored?: No Goal — 6¢ Kalshi $667 (weight 6%)
- Will no goal be scored?: No Goal — 7¢ Kalshi $570 (weight 5%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:50.723Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "29% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcftts
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20no%20goal%20be%20scored
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev