13% — Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing African nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Kalshi 13% · 20 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:01 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the odds that Ivory Coast advances further than any other African nation at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The 19% assessment suggests Ivory Coast is competitive but not favored—Morocco is priced substantially higher at 40%, indicating market participants view Morocco's squad strength and recent tournament experience as advantages. Ivory Coast's position depends on group composition, injury status of key players, and performance against higher-seeded opponents. The tournament begins in June 2026, at which point group stage matchups and early results will quickly resolve much of the uncertainty around which African side performs best. Key factors: - Ivory Coast's group assignment and opponent quality, which will be determined at the official 2026 World Cup draw - Comparative squad depth and form of competing African nations, particularly Morocco, Senegal, and Cameroon heading into the tournament - Injury or availability status of Ivory Coast's key players during the June 2026 tournament window - Historical performance data: Ivory Coast reached the Round of 16 in 2014 but has not advanced past that stage since; Morocco reached the semifinals in 2022 - Tournament bracket dynamics and whether Ivory Coast faces easier or harder paths to advancing further than rival African nations Contracts: - Will Spain be the furthest advancing European nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Spain — 20¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 35%) - Will Senegal be the furthest advancing African nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Senegal — 17¢ Kalshi $795 (weight 15%) - Will Korea Republic be the furthest advancing Asian/Oceanic nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Korea Republic — 17¢ Kalshi $749 (weight 14%) - Will Morocco be the furthest advancing African nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Morocco — 27¢ Kalshi $559 (weight 10%) - Will Japan be the furthest advancing Asian/Oceanic nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Japan — 34¢ Kalshi $472 (weight 9%) - Will Argentina be the furthest advancing South American nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Argentina — 35¢ Kalshi $353 (weight 7%) - Will Ecuador be the furthest advancing South American nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Ecuador — 5¢ Kalshi $201 (weight 4%) - Will Colombia be the furthest advancing South American nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Colombia — 12¢ Kalshi $126 (weight 2%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.377Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcfurthestadvancing Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ivory%20Coast%20be%20the%20furthest%20advancing%20African%20nation%20in%20the%202026%20Men's%20FIFA%20World%20Cup Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev