36% — Scotland vs Morocco Winner
Leader: Reg Time: England at 36% · Kalshi 36% · 3 contracts · $89K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 02:52:29 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 33% probability reflects the market's assessment of Scotland's chances of winning their upcoming match against Morocco in regular time. The current level appears driven by Scotland's standing as a stronger-rated team historically, though Morocco has proven competitive in recent tournaments. Key factors affecting this probability include team form leading into the match, recent head-to-head records, and player availability. The resolution will come when the match concludes, with the probability moving based on betting activity and updated expectations as the fixture date approaches. Market confidence levels remain moderate given the competitive nature of international football.

Key factors:
- Scotland's higher FIFA ranking and stronger recent tournament performances compared to Morocco
- Morocco's demonstrated ability to compete against higher-seeded teams in recent international competitions
- Player injury status and squad rotation decisions by both managers in the days before the match
- Betting volume concentration: France vs Morocco contracts show significantly higher activity ($40k+ combined 24h volume) than implied by this match's probability level
- The match outcome will be determined by regulation time winner only, excluding extra time or penalty shootout scenarios

Contracts:
- England vs Argentina Winner?: Reg Time: England — 36¢ Kalshi $36K (weight 40%)
- England vs Argentina Winner?: Reg Time: Tie — 33¢ Kalshi $21K (weight 24%)
- England vs Argentina Winner?: Reg Time: Argentina — 31¢ Kalshi $32K (weight 36%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-07-14T02:20:50.219Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcgame
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Scotland%20vs%20Morocco%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev