31% — Scotland vs Morocco Winner
Kalshi 31% · 19 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:22:00 UTC

Why this matters:
This 27% probability reflects the market's assessment that Scotland will win their direct matchup against Morocco in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The current pricing suggests Morocco enters as favorites, consistent with their higher ranking and recent tournament performances. The probability is anchored by contract activity across multiple venues, with related markets showing Morocco at 16-18 cents in broader group scenarios. The main drivers of this probability are the teams' relative strength, head-to-head history, and their performance trajectories leading into the tournament. The fixture itself will resolve all uncertainty around this specific matchup outcome once the game is played during the group stage in June 2026.

Key factors:
- Scotland's FIFA ranking and recent competitive record compared to Morocco's prior to the tournament
- Morocco's performance in recent international competitions versus Scotland's qualification campaign and form
- Historical head-to-head results between the two teams and tactical matchups
- Related market pricing showing Morocco favored in group scenarios (16-18 cents) versus Scotland (5 cents), indicating consistency in probability assessments
- The 27% probability implies roughly 73% implied probability for Morocco to win this specific fixture

Contracts:
- Brazil vs Haiti Winner?: Haiti — 9¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 34%)
- USA vs Paraguay Winner?: Tie — 22¢ Kalshi $863 (weight 12%)
- Brazil vs Haiti Winner?: Brazil — 85¢ Kalshi $667 (weight 9%)
- Mexico vs Korea Republic Winner?: Korea Republic — 25¢ Kalshi $432 (weight 6%)
- Haiti vs Scotland Winner?: Tie — 18¢ Kalshi $354 (weight 5%)
- Brazil vs Haiti Winner?: Tie — 3¢ Kalshi $352 (weight 5%)
- Germany vs Curacao Winner?: Germany — 89¢ Kalshi $349 (weight 5%)
- IR Iran vs New Zealand Winner?: New Zealand — 14¢ Kalshi $340 (weight 5%)
- ... and 11 more

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcgame
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Scotland%20vs%20Morocco%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev