91% — Will the winner of the Golden Boot score 13+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Leader: 9+ total goals at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 5 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 04:26:31 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability assesses whether the 2026 World Cup's top scorer will accumulate 13 or more goals during the tournament. The 90% price on the 6+ goal threshold indicates strong market confidence that the Golden Boot winner will score moderately, but prices decline sharply at higher thresholds—the 13+ outcome trades at 29 cents, suggesting roughly 1 in 3 odds. The dropoff reflects uncertainty about whether any single player will maintain elite finishing form across multiple knockout stages, or whether goals will distribute among multiple forwards. Historical Golden Boot winners have varied widely; recent tournaments saw winners with 6-8 goals, while outliers like 2014 (James Rodríguez, 6 goals) and 2018 (Kane, 6 goals) scored lower despite strong squad performances. The outcome resolves on July 11, 2026, following the tournament's conclusion. Key factors: - Golden Boot winners in recent World Cups (2014-2022) scored between 6-8 goals; 13+ would represent a significant outlier requiring sustained offensive performance - The 2026 tournament expands to 48 teams with 80 matches total, potentially distributing scoring opportunities differently than prior 32-team formats - Market prices show declining conviction at each threshold increment—from 90% at 6+ down to 29% at 13+—indicating genuine disagreement about elite performance ceilings - Historical outliers like Gerd Müller (1970) with 10 goals are rare; recent tournaments suggest scoring consolidation among fewer players rather than single-dominant performances - Tournament structure and knockout-stage advancement rates for different confederations will determine whether frontrunners accumulate sufficient matches to reach 13 goals Contracts: - Will the winner of the Golden Boot score 9+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 9+ total goals — 91¢ Kalshi $236 (weight 10%) - Will the winner of the Golden Boot score 10+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 10+ total goals — 75¢ Kalshi $185 (weight 7%) - Will the winner of the Golden Boot score 11+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 11+ total goals — 40¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 41%) - Will the winner of the Golden Boot score 12+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 12+ total goals — 24¢ Kalshi $48 (weight 2%) - Will the winner of the Golden Boot score 13+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 13+ total goals — 4¢ Kalshi $982 (weight 40%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T04:20:50.663Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcgbootgoals Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20winner%20of%20the%20Golden%20Boot%20score%2013%2B%20goals%20in%20the%202026%20Men's%20FIFA%20World%20Cup Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev