20% — Duckens Nazon: 1+ goals
Kalshi 20% · 18 contracts · $401K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 00:38:36 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract reflects a 13% probability that Duckens Nazon scores at least one goal in an upcoming match. The low probability typically indicates either that Nazon is not expected to start, plays limited minutes, or faces defensive opponents, or that other attacking players on his team are favored to score instead. The contract resolves when the match concludes and official goal statistics are recorded. Key drivers of the probability would include Nazon's recent playing time, his position in the team's attacking rotation, the strength of the opposing defense, and overall team performance in recent fixtures.

Key factors:
- Nazon's average minutes played per match in recent appearances compared to other attacking options on the roster
- The defensive strength or recent goal concession rate of the opposing team
- Nazon's goal-scoring rate per 90 minutes over the last 5-10 competitive fixtures
- His current status in the team's starting lineup versus bench position
- The relative pricing of similar one-goal contracts for teammates (context: Vinicius Jr at 28%, Raphinha at 26%, Xhaka at 19%)

Contracts:
- Kylian Mbappe: 2+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 2+ — 19¢ Kalshi $94K (weight 24%)
- Kylian Mbappe: 1+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 1+ — 53¢ Kalshi $85K (weight 21%)
- Erling Haaland: 1+ goals: Erling Haaland: 1+ — 38¢ Kalshi $76K (weight 19%)
- Erling Haaland: 2+ goals: Erling Haaland: 2+ — 9¢ Kalshi $59K (weight 15%)
- Kylian Mbappe: 3+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 3+ — 3¢ Kalshi $31K (weight 8%)
- Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals: Lamine Yamal: 1+ — 35¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 4%)
- Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals: Lamine Yamal: 2+ — 9¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 3%)
- Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals: Mohamed Salah: 2+ — 3¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 2%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T00:20:51.340Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcgoal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Duckens%20Nazon%3A%201%2B%20goals
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev