18% — Will Portugal finish bottom of Group K in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Kalshi 18% · 18 contracts · $24 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:02 UTC Why this matters: This probability estimates the chance that Portugal finishes last in Group K at the 2026 World Cup, currently priced at 17%. Portugal's group assignment includes France, Uruguay, and Ghana—a competitive field where Portugal's actual finishing position will depend on head-to-head performance and goal differential. The probability reflects Portugal's historical strength as a national team, recent tournament performance, and the relative quality of other Group K nations. Factors that would increase this probability include poor qualifying form, injury to key players, or underperformance in pre-tournament matches. Conversely, strong preparation and favorable match outcomes would decrease it. The uncertainty will largely resolve during Group K matches in summer 2026, with some adjustments likely occurring between now and then based on friendlies and any roster changes. Key factors: - Portugal's FIFA ranking relative to France, Uruguay, and Ghana; current rankings suggest Portugal is stronger than Ghana but comparable to or behind France and Uruguay - Head-to-head records and recent competitive history between Portugal and each Group K opponent; historical patterns in knockout and group stage performance - Pre-tournament injury status and squad depth; availability of key Portugal national team players in early 2026 - Group K match schedule and fixture sequencing; certain orderings create different elimination scenarios - Market pricing on related contracts shows Belgium, Spain, and Argentina (stronger traditional powers) trading at 3-8 cents, providing comparative context for how markets value bottom-finishing risk for competitive teams Contracts: - Will Uruguay finish bottom of Group H in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Uruguay — 5¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 41%) - Will South Africa finish bottom of Group A in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: South Africa — 52¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 38%) - Will Belgium finish bottom of Group G in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Belgium — 3¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 21%) - Will Czechia finish bottom of Group A in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Czechia — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Korea Republic finish bottom of Group A in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Korea Republic — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Mexico finish bottom of Group A in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Mexico — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish bottom of Group B in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Bosnia and Herzegovina — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Canada finish bottom of Group B in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Canada — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.411Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcgroupbottom Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Portugal%20finish%20bottom%20of%20Group%20K%20in%20the%202026%20Men's%20FIFA%20World%20Cup Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev