21% — Will Group H score the most goals in the Group Stage Kalshi 21% · 10 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 23:48:29 UTC Why this matters: This market asks whether Group H will accumulate the most goals across all eight groups during the tournament's group stage. At 6% probability, Group H is considered a significant underdog for this outcome. The low probability reflects that multiple other groups are historically more likely to generate high-scoring matches. The main factors influencing this estimate are the attacking quality of teams assigned to Group H, their defensive vulnerabilities, and the scheduling of their matches. The group stage concludes when all teams complete their final matches, at which point the total goal count for each group becomes fixed and the market resolves. Movement in this probability would depend on team lineups being confirmed and expert assessments of each group's competitive balance and expected goal production. Key factors: - Team composition of Group H relative to other groups' attacking capabilities and defensive weaknesses - Historical scoring patterns in similar tournament structures and whether this edition follows typical distributions - Strength of schedule considerations—matchday sequencing and whether trailing teams need goals in later matches - Comparison to other groups' probabilities, particularly Group E (11%) which currently has the highest market probability - Tournament-specific variables like weather conditions, venue factors, or rule changes affecting goal-scoring pace Contracts: - Will Group A score the fewest goals in the Group Stage?: Group A — 39¢ Kalshi $837 (weight 29%) - Will Group L score the fewest goals in the Group Stage?: Group L — 25¢ Kalshi $656 (weight 23%) - Will Group F score the most goals in the Group Stage?: Group F — 78¢ Kalshi $456 (weight 16%) - Will Group I score the most goals in the Group Stage?: Group I — 15¢ Kalshi $288 (weight 10%) - Will Group D score the fewest goals in the Group Stage?: Group D — 5¢ Kalshi $212 (weight 7%) - Will Group E score the most goals in the Group Stage?: Group E — 3¢ Kalshi $207 (weight 7%) - Will Group G score the fewest goals in the Group Stage?: Group G — 3¢ Kalshi $186 (weight 6%) - Will Group H score the fewest goals in the Group Stage?: Group H — 7¢ Kalshi $56 (weight 2%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:51.817Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcgroupgoals Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Group%20H%20score%20the%20most%20goals%20in%20the%20Group%20Stage Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev