67% — Will Paraguay qualify from World Cup Group D
Kalshi 67% · 20 contracts · $26K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:57 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Paraguay will finish in the top two of their World Cup group and advance to the knockout stage. The 57% assessment suggests Paraguay is viewed as a competitive team with meaningful advancement chances, but facing genuine uncertainty. Key drivers of this probability include Paraguay's recent international form, the strength of competing teams in Group D, and their historical performance in World Cup qualification and tournament play. The upcoming matches within Group D will be the primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty, as actual results will determine advancement directly. Paraguay's ability to secure points early and their performance against the group favorites will likely shift probabilities substantially.

Key factors:
- Paraguay's FIFA ranking and recent competitive record relative to other Group D nations determines baseline qualification likelihood
- Head-to-head records and historical performance of Group D opponents provide context for relative team strength
- Injuries to key players or coaching changes before tournament play could materially affect Paraguay's capabilities
- Paraguay's goal differential and points accumulated in their opening Group D matches will directly indicate advancement probability
- Strength of schedule within Group D and whether Paraguay faces group favorites early or late affects their advancement odds

Contracts:
- Will Argentina qualify from World Cup Group J?: Argentina — 96¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 15%)
- Will Haiti qualify from World Cup Group C?: Haiti — 10¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 15%)
- Will Japan qualify from World Cup Group F?: Japan — 79¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 10%)
- Will Ivory Coast qualify from World Cup Group E?: Ivory Coast — 78¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 9%)
- Will Spain qualify from World Cup Group H?: Spain — 97¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 7%)
- Will Saudi Arabia qualify from World Cup Group H?: Saudi Arabia — 34¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 5%)
- Will Scotland qualify from World Cup Group C?: Scotland — 69¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 5%)
- Will Germany qualify from World Cup Group E?: Germany — 97¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 5%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.253Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "67% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcgroupqual
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Paraguay%20qualify%20from%20World%20Cup%20Group%20D
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev