37% — Will Senegal finish first in World Cup Group I
Kalshi 37% · 13 contracts · $233K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:38 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects current market expectations that Senegal will top World Cup Group I ahead of other competitors. The 28% assessment suggests meaningful but not favored odds, likely reflecting Senegal's regional strength in African football while accounting for potential group opponents' capabilities. Key drivers of this probability are Senegal's recent tournament performance, the specific composition of Group I opponents, and how analysts weigh head-to-head matchups and home-field considerations. The probability will shift based on final group assignments and any roster changes as teams announce their squads closer to tournament start. The definitive resolution occurs when the group stage concludes and final standings are determined.

Key factors:
- Senegal's FIFA ranking relative to other potential Group I competitors at time of group draw
- Historical head-to-head records between Senegal and confirmed Group I opponents in recent competitions
- Injury status and squad depth of key Senegal players during the tournament window
- Whether Group I includes traditionally strong football nations or lower-ranked teams based on seeding
- Home advantage effects if matches are played in specific regional locations

Contracts:
- Will Colombia finish first in World Cup Group K?: Colombia — 46¢ Kalshi $54K (weight 23%)
- Will Cape Verde finish first in World Cup Group H?: Cape Verde — 3¢ Kalshi $40K (weight 17%)
- Will France finish first in World Cup Group I?: France — 79¢ Kalshi $27K (weight 12%)
- Will Croatia finish first in World Cup Group L?: Croatia — 7¢ Kalshi $20K (weight 8%)
- Will Portugal finish first in World Cup Group K?: Portugal — 52¢ Kalshi $17K (weight 7%)
- Will Ghana finish first in World Cup Group L?: Ghana — 4¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 6%)
- Will England finish first in World Cup Group L?: England — 86¢ Kalshi $13K (weight 6%)
- Will Belgium finish first in World Cup Group G?: Belgium — 28¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 5%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.339Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcgroupwin
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Senegal%20finish%20first%20in%20World%20Cup%20Group%20I
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev