19% — Will a team from Group I win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Leader: Group I at 19% · Kalshi 19% · 9 contracts · $18K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 23:48:31 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects the current market expectation that a team from Group I of the 2026 FIFA World Cup will ultimately win the tournament. Group I contains teams selected through the qualification process, and at 9%, this group is priced as the most likely to produce a champion among all World Cup groups. The probability is influenced by the perceived strength and depth of Group I's teams relative to other groups. The main uncertainty driver is how accurately current team rankings and form capture actual tournament performance, which depends heavily on injuries, coaching decisions, and match-day execution. The probability will begin to resolve definitively once the tournament begins in June 2026, with early matches providing information about Group I's competitive standing compared to other groups. Key factors: - Group I's tournament probability (9%) exceeds most other groups but remains under 10%, indicating distributed expectations across all groups - Group H ranks second-highest at 7%, suggesting market participants view strengths as relatively dispersed rather than concentrated in a single group - The 2026 World Cup begins in approximately six weeks, with Group I matches occurring in the initial round likely to sharply reduce uncertainty about this outcome - Team composition and form during the final pre-tournament period will significantly affect bets, particularly for any Group I teams in major European or South American competitions - Historical World Cup winners have come from varied group positions, suggesting group assignment alone is not strongly predictive without accounting for specific team quality Contracts: - Will a team from Group I win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group I — 19¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 10%) - Will a team from Group J win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group J — 13¢ Kalshi $709 (weight 4%) - Will a team from Group H win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group H — 10¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 7%) - Will a team from Group K win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group K — 8¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 29%) - Will a team from Group F win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group F — 8¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 9%) - Will a team from Group L win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group L — 6¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 7%) - Will a team from Group E win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group E — 6¢ Kalshi $954 (weight 5%) - Will a team from Group D win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group D — 4¢ Kalshi $307 (weight 2%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:52.547Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcgroupwinner Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20a%20team%20from%20Group%20I%20win%20the%202026%20Men's%20FIFA%20World%20Cup Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev