13% — Will New Zealand score the fewest goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Kalshi 13% · 20 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:55 UTC Why this matters: This contract asks whether New Zealand will score fewer goals than any other team in their World Cup group during the tournament's opening stage. At 13%, the market suggests a low but meaningful probability. New Zealand's offensive capability relative to their group opponents, combined with historical goal-scoring patterns, drives the current odds. The probability will clarify significantly once group assignments are finalized and teams begin their matches in mid-June 2026. Key drivers include New Zealand's squad strength and recent attacking performance compared to group rivals, and whether they face particularly strong defensive opponents that could limit scoring opportunities. Key factors: - New Zealand's group composition once revealed—playing stronger offensive teams increases the likelihood of fewest goals - Historical World Cup goal-scoring data for New Zealand versus typical group-stage opponents and tournament averages - Comparative offensive firepower and recent goal-scoring records of teams in New Zealand's assigned group - Injury status and availability of New Zealand's key attacking players approaching the tournament - Group stage schedules and opponent quality—fixtures against stronger teams may suppress New Zealand's goal total relative to weaker group members Contracts: - Will Curacao score the fewest goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Curacao — 15¢ Kalshi $680 (weight 31%) - Will Uzbekistan score the fewest goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Uzbekistan — 17¢ Kalshi $396 (weight 18%) - Will Germany score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Germany — 7¢ Kalshi $278 (weight 13%) - Will New Zealand score the fewest goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: New Zealand — 15¢ Kalshi $142 (weight 6%) - Will Canada score the fewest goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Canada — 11¢ Kalshi $128 (weight 6%) - Will Portugal score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Portugal — 17¢ Kalshi $111 (weight 5%) - Will Spain score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Spain — 12¢ Kalshi $108 (weight 5%) - Will France score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: France — 10¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 5%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.542Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcgsgoals Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20New%20Zealand%20score%20the%20fewest%20goals%20in%20the%20group%20stage%20of%20the%202026%20Men's%20FIFA%20World%20Cup Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev