45% — Will Argentina win all 3 of their matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Kalshi 45% · 6 contracts · $76K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 23:44:34 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the chance Argentina wins all three of their group-stage matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, currently estimated at 20% by contract traders. Argentina's 20% odds sit between strong favorites like Belgium (32%) and weaker teams, suggesting traders view them as competitive but unlikely to sweep their group without a loss. The main drivers of this probability are Argentina's actual squad strength relative to their group opponents and the inherent difficulty of going undefeated in any three-match tournament round. Argentina's group assignment and the quality of teams they face will be the key determining factors—a group with lower-ranked opponents increases their chances, while placement alongside stronger teams reduces them. The 2026 World Cup group stage begins in June, which will resolve this uncertainty once matches are played.

Key factors:
- Argentina's opponent quality in their assigned group, as facing lower-ranked teams significantly increases undefeated probability
- Argentina's current roster depth and injury status closer to June 2026, particularly among key players
- Historical performance data showing what percentage of strong national teams win all three group matches
- Comparative odds across similar nations show Belgium at 32% and Mexico at 16%, suggesting market perception of Argentina's competitiveness
- Argentina's qualification record and recent tournament performance as indicators of their consistency and form

Contracts:
- Will USA win all 3 of their matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: USA — 55¢ Kalshi $38K (weight 51%)
- Will Germany win all 3 of their matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Germany — 29¢ Kalshi $25K (weight 33%)
- Will Argentina win all 3 of their matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Argentina — 83¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 6%)
- Will France win all 3 of their matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: France — 62¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 6%)
- Will Norway win all 3 of their matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Norway — 20¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 2%)
- Will Colombia win all 3 of their matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Colombia — 22¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 2%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:50.481Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcgsundefeated
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Argentina%20win%20all%203%20of%20their%20matches%20in%20the%20group%20stage%20of%20the%202026%20Men's%20FIFA%20World%20Cup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev