77% — Will there be at least 1 hattrick recorded during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Leader: 3+ hattricks at 77% · Kalshi 77% · 3 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 04:13:49 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market is pricing at 96% the likelihood that at least two players will each score three goals in a single match during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This reflects the contract structure where 2+ hattricks is the leading outcome, with declining probabilities for higher thresholds (72% for 3+, 67% for 4+, 32% for 5+). The elevated probability depends on squad depth, offensive tactics, and opponent quality varying across tournament matches. The tournament runs from mid-June through mid-July 2026, with group stages and knockout rounds determining matchup quality and player opportunity. Resolution occurs through the tournament's completion, making team composition, injuries to star forwards, and defensive strategy key variables that could shift the probability before and during play.

Key factors:
- Historical hattrick frequency in World Cup tournaments (2014: 2 total, 2018: 1 total, 2022: 1 total) suggests 2+ is statistically rare but plausible over 64 matches
- Participation of high-volume shooters and dominant attacking teams in 2026 will determine whether conditions exist for multiple hattricks across different matches
- Defensive quality and goalkeeper performance in group stages and knockout rounds directly affects scoring thresholds individual players can reach
- Early tournament results and group-stage blowouts (common sources of hattricks) will refine expectations before knockout stage begins
- Squad strength and forward depth across participating nations determines whether multiple players have opportunities to reach three-goal benchmarks in single matches

Contracts:
- Will there be at least 3 hattricks recorded during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 3+ hattricks — 77¢ Kalshi $74 (weight 4%)
- Will there be at least 5 hattricks recorded during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 5+ hattricks — 24¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 89%)
- Will there be at least 4 hattricks recorded during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 4+ hattricks — 21¢ Kalshi $116 (weight 7%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:50.760Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "77% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wchattrick
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20at%20least%201%20hattrick%20recorded%20during%20the%202026%20Men's%20FIFA%20World%20Cup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev