12% — Will Australia or New Zealand be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup Kalshi 12% · 11 contracts · $436 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-12 23:59:59 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents the chance that either Australia or New Zealand will be formally announced as hosts for the 2038 FIFA Men's World Cup. The 8% estimate reflects that while both nations have hosted major tournaments before and possess adequate infrastructure, the competition for 2038 hosting rights remains open among several strong candidates globally. Key factors influencing this probability include FIFA's selection timeline and criteria, the countries' recent track record hosting comparable events, infrastructure readiness compared to rival bidders, and political-economic capacity to deliver an event of this scale. FIFA typically announces World Cup hosts 10-12 years in advance, meaning the 2038 decision is likely to occur in 2026-2027, creating an upcoming period of heightened clarity as formal bids are submitted and evaluated. Key factors: - FIFA's official 2038 World Cup host announcement is expected in late 2026 or 2027; this timeline is the primary near-term catalyst that will substantially reduce uncertainty - Australia and New Zealand must formally submit competitive bids against other candidate nations; bid quality, financial guarantees, and stadium specifications directly affect selection odds - Historical precedent shows UEFA nations (Europe) and CONMEBOL nations (South America) have hosted more frequently than AFC nations (Asia-Pacific), creating structural headwinds for Australia/New Zealand relative to European or South American bidders - Infrastructure capacity: both nations have hosted major events (2015 Rugby World Cup in NZ, 2019 Women's World Cup in France then other events), but must demonstrate simultaneous hosting capability for 48+ teams at 12+ stadiums - Current contract pricing similarity across disparate regional groups (8% for South America, 8% for Australia/NZ, 5% for Western Europe) suggests low confidence in any single bid rather than strong differentiation Contracts: - Will China be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?: China — 25¢ Kalshi $266 (weight 61%) - Will USA be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?: USA — 30¢ Kalshi $161 (weight 37%) - Will Panama or Costa Rica be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Panama or Costa Rica — 3¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 2%) - Will Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Australia or New Zealand be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Australia or New Zealand — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Brazil, Colombia or Peru be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Brazil, Colombia or Peru — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Cambodia be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Cambodia — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Egypt be announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Egypt — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-12T23:20:49.563Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wchost Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Australia%20or%20New%20Zealand%20be%20announced%20as%20hosts%20for%20the%202038%20Men's%20FIFA%20World%20Cup Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev