97% — Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $9000 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026
Leader: Above $5000 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 20 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 13:13:35 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market assesses whether World Cup Final tickets will trade at a get-in price above $9,000 on TicketData at 3:00 PM ET on July 18th, 2026. The 29-cent contract price reflects skepticism that prices will reach this level, suggesting market participants expect either moderately lower secondary-market prices or sufficient ticket supply to prevent extreme scarcity premiums. Final ticket prices depend on team identity, demand from the two finalist nations, stadium capacity constraints, and overall secondary-market dynamics closer to the event. The main driver is which teams qualify; matches involving traditional powerhouses with large diaspora populations typically command higher resale premiums. Resolution occurs on July 18th when actual TicketData get-in prices can be verified, making this a pure data-dependent event with limited predictability until the semi-finals conclude on July 13-15.

Key factors:
- Get-in price (cheapest available ticket) on TicketData will be observed and verified at exactly 3:00 PM ET on July 18th, 2026—no discretion in measurement
- Finalist team identities, confirmed by semi-final results on July 13-15, will substantially influence secondary-market demand and pricing power
- Stadium capacity and ticket supply allocation (number of seats released to secondary markets) constrains the price floor independent of demand
- Historical World Cup final secondary-market data shows get-in prices ranging widely based on host nation, team proximity, and perceived demand
- Current market prices on related contracts (get-in above $6,000 at 40 cents) suggest participants expect prices in the $5,000-$8,000 range more likely than above $9,000

Contracts:
- Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $5000 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026?: Above $5000 — 97¢ Kalshi $564 (weight 11%)
- Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 102 (Mercedes-Benz Stadium) on TicketData be above $2000 on 3:00PM ET July 15th, 2026?: Above $2000 — 96¢ Kalshi $121 (weight 2%)
- Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 102 (Mercedes-Benz Stadium) on TicketData be above $2250 on 3:00PM ET July 15th, 2026?: Above $2250 — 94¢ Kalshi $56 (weight 1%)
- Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $6000 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026?: Above $6000 — 93¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 20%)
- Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 101 (AT&T Stadium) on TicketData be above $2250 on 3:00PM ET July 13th, 2026?: Above $2250 — 93¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 1%)
- Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $6500 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026?: Above $6500 — 91¢ Kalshi $61 (weight 1%)
- Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 102 (Mercedes-Benz Stadium) on TicketData be above $2500 on 3:00PM ET July 15th, 2026?: Above $2500 — 87¢ Kalshi $41 (weight 1%)
- Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 101 (AT&T Stadium) on TicketData be above $3250 on 3:00PM ET July 13th, 2026?: Above $3250 — 84¢ Kalshi $66 (weight 1%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T12:20:50.677Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcprice
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Get-in%20price%20of%20the%202026%20World%20Cup%20Final%20on%20TicketData%20be%20above%20%249000%20on%203%3A00PM%20ET%20July%2018th%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev