22% — Will Algeria qualify for FIFA World Cup Round of 16 Kalshi 22% · 19 contracts · $87K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:57 UTC Why this matters: This 18% probability indicates traders assess an 82% chance Algeria does not advance past the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Algeria's qualification odds reflect their historical performance as occasional tournament participants rather than consistent advancing teams, combined with the strength of their likely group opponents. The probability would move primarily based on Algeria's recent competitive results against top nations, their current squad composition and key player availability, and the specific draw outcome determining their group assignment. The critical catalyst is the World Cup group stage draw, which will determine whether Algeria faces elite teams or more beatable opponents. Following that, their actual group-stage performance—particularly results in opening matches—would significantly shift these odds as markets react to live competitive data. Key factors: - Algeria's historical knockout stage appearance rate: qualified for Round of 16 only once since 1986 (2014), suggesting structural competitive disadvantage - Group draw composition will substantially impact advancement probability; facing multiple top-ranked nations significantly lowers qualification chances compared to a weaker group - Current FIFA ranking and recent qualification campaign performance relative to likely group competitors (will vary based on final draw) - Key player availability and squad depth for 2026, particularly injuries or roster changes affecting attacking capability - Comparative trading volumes and odds across other nations' Round of 16 probabilities indicate market view of Algeria relative to similar-strength teams Contracts: - Will Mexico qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?: Mexico — 12¢ Kalshi $11K (weight 13%) - Will USA qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?: USA — 9¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 7%) - Will Colombia qualify for FIFA World Cup Final?: Colombia — 5¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 7%) - Will Portugal qualify for FIFA World Cup Final?: Portugal — 16¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 7%) - Will England qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?: England — 34¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 7%) - Will Morocco qualify for FIFA World Cup Final?: Morocco — 5¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 6%) - Will Ivory Coast qualify for FIFA World Cup Round of 16?: Ivory Coast — 30¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 6%) - Will Spain qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?: Spain — 45¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 6%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.875Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcround Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Algeria%20qualify%20for%20FIFA%20World%20Cup%20Round%20of%2016 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev