33% — Bruno Guimaraes: score or assist
Kalshi 33% · 20 contracts · $22K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 00:38:34 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the likelihood that Bruno Guimaraes will score or assist in an upcoming match. The 25% price is notably lower than several other players in the comparison set, particularly lower than Dan Ndoye (43%) and significantly lower than Breel Embolo (55%). Guimaraes' probability appears to reflect his current form, playing position, and recent involvement in offensive actions. Key factors include his baseline contribution rate in previous matches, whether he's playing in a favorable matchup, and team tactical setup for the specific fixture. The resolution will depend entirely on whether he records either a goal or an assist during the match itself. Market prices tend to adjust based on team news, lineup confirmations, and opponent defense strength as the match approaches.

Key factors:
- Bruno Guimaraes' recent goal and assist frequency in his last 5-10 matches
- His typical role and offensive involvement in his team's formation and tactical system
- The defensive quality and recent form of the opposing team
- Whether Guimaraes is confirmed to start or may be used as a substitute
- Historical head-to-head involvement rates when playing against this specific opponent

Contracts:
- Kylian Mbappe: score or assist?: Kylian Mbappe — 59¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 36%)
- Erling Haaland: score or assist?: Erling Haaland — 43¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 35%)
- Lamine Yamal: score or assist?: Lamine Yamal — 51¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%)
- Martin Odegaard: score or assist?: Martin Odegaard — 4¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%)
- Michael Olise: score or assist?: Michael Olise — 46¢ Kalshi $895 (weight 4%)
- Mohamed Salah: score or assist?: Mohamed Salah — 40¢ Kalshi $789 (weight 4%)
- Ousmane Dembele: score or assist?: Ousmane Dembele — 43¢ Kalshi $545 (weight 2%)
- Jeremy Doku: score or assist?: Jeremy Doku — 53¢ Kalshi $244 (weight 1%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T00:20:51.242Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcsoa
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Bruno%20Guimaraes%3A%20score%20or%20assist
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev