23% — Mexico wins by over 1.5 goals Kalshi 23% · 20 contracts · $269K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 00:38:35 UTC Why this matters: This market reflects a 29% probability that Mexico wins a match by more than 1.5 goals—meaning they win 2-0, 3-1, or by any wider margin. The probability sits between England (45%) and Egypt (24%) on similar contracts, suggesting moderate confidence in Mexico's offensive capability. Volume concentration on this contract ($1,786 in 24-hour trades) indicates active interest. The outcome depends primarily on Mexico's goal-scoring efficiency against their opponent's defensive performance. Historical matchup data, current team form, and injury status of key players would be primary drivers of this probability moving higher or lower. The specific matchup date and opponent identity remain critical unknowns affecting confidence in this outcome. Key factors: - Mexico's recent goal differential and conversion rate in comparable competition matches - Opponent's defensive record and goals-against average in similar fixtures - Starting lineup availability—particularly Mexico's primary attacking players and their opponent's key defenders - Historical head-to-head goal margin distribution between these specific teams - Recent form trend: goals scored per match by Mexico over the past 5-10 games versus opponent's goals allowed Contracts: - Argentina wins by more than 2.5 goals?: Argentina wins by more than 2.5 goals — 38¢ Kalshi $46K (weight 17%) - France wins by more than 1.5 goals?: France wins by more than 1.5 goals — 35¢ Kalshi $44K (weight 17%) - Argentina wins by more than 1.5 goals?: Argentina wins by more than 1.5 goals — 61¢ Kalshi $29K (weight 11%) - Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals?: Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals — 39¢ Kalshi $26K (weight 10%) - Senegal wins by more than 1.5 goals?: Senegal wins by more than 1.5 goals — 57¢ Kalshi $20K (weight 7%) - Portugal wins by more than 1.5 goals?: Portugal wins by more than 1.5 goals — 27¢ Kalshi $16K (weight 6%) - Egypt wins by more than 1.5 goals?: Egypt wins by more than 1.5 goals — 16¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 5%) - Portugal wins by more than 2.5 goals?: Portugal wins by more than 2.5 goals — 10¢ Kalshi $13K (weight 5%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T00:20:49.624Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcspread Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Mexico%20wins%20by%20over%201.5%20goals Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev