25% — Will USA get eliminated in the Group Stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Kalshi 25% · 17 contracts · $266K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:43:05 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that the USA will be eliminated in the Round of 32 (knockout stage) of the 2026 World Cup rather than earlier or later. The 33% probability suggests traders see meaningful risk of early elimination, though group stage exit trades much lower at 9%. The USA's performance depends on group composition, which will be determined by the draw, combined with squad depth and form heading into the tournament. The primary catalyst resolving uncertainty will be the official group stage draw, currently scheduled before tournament play begins in June 2026. Current market pricing also reflects historical precedent: the USA has advanced past group stages in recent tournaments (2014, 2018, 2022), which may anchor expectations toward advancing but facing tougher competition in knockout rounds. Key factors: - Group stage draw composition determines strength of opposition; unseeded teams face variable difficulty based on pot assignments - USA squad strength and player fitness entering June 2026, including injury status of key Premier League and top-division players - Historical advancement rate: USA has cleared group stage in three consecutive World Cups (2014–2022), establishing baseline expectations - Relative pricing across elimination stages (9% group stage vs. 33% Round of 32) suggests market confidence in group survival but uncertainty about knockout performance - Host nation Mexico's inclusion in same tournament may affect regional dynamics and competition intensity in group stage matchups Contracts: - Will USA win the final of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Outright Winner — 4¢ Kalshi $75K (weight 28%) - Will USA get eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Quarterfinals — 31¢ Kalshi $25K (weight 10%) - Will USA get eliminated in the Round of 16 of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 16 — 25¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 7%) - Will Korea Republic get eliminated in the Group Stage in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group Stage — 55¢ Kalshi $16K (weight 6%) - Will USA get eliminated in the Round of 32 of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 32 — 22¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 6%) - Will Scotland get eliminated in the Group Stage in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group Stage — 94¢ Kalshi $13K (weight 5%) - Will Mexico get eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Quarterfinals — 11¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 4%) - Will Mexico get eliminated in the Round of 16 of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 16 — 38¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 4%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:50.373Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcstageofelim Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20USA%20get%20eliminated%20in%20the%20Group%20Stage%20of%20the%202026%20Men's%20FIFA%20World%20Cup Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev