43% — Will USA score at least 5 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Leader: 5+ goals at 43% · Kalshi 43% · 5 contracts · $38 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 21:21:26 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability indicates a less-than-even chance that the USA will score 5 or more goals across its three group-stage matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The 43% estimate reflects uncertainty about the team's offensive output relative to typical World Cup group-stage performances. The USA's historical scoring patterns, the strength of opponents in its assigned group, and team roster composition through 2026 are primary drivers of this probability. Notable context includes that scoring 5 goals in group play requires averaging roughly 1.7 goals per match—a moderately high bar for most national teams. The resolution of this market will depend entirely on the results of the three group-stage matches, scheduled to occur in June-July 2026. Market participants are pricing in meaningful doubt about whether the team will achieve this scoring threshold despite having favorable conditions in expanded 48-team format. Key factors: - USA averaged 1.88 goals per match across all competitive games in 2024-2025, suggesting 5 goals in 3 matches (1.67 per game) is achievable but not highly probable - The assignment of USA's group opponents in early 2026 will materially affect scoring likelihood—stronger defensive teams would lower probability while weaker opponents would increase it - Historical World Cup group-stage data shows median goal totals per team cluster around 3-4 goals, making 5 goals an above-median outcome - The 4+ goals contract trading at 60¢ versus the 5+ goals contract at 48¢ indicates market participants view the difference between 4 and 5 goals as a meaningful probability gap - USA squad composition and fitness status will be finalized by June 2026, with any significant injuries to offensive players capable of shifting expectations downward Contracts: - Will USA score at least 5 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 5+ goals — 43¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 16%) - Will USA score at least 7 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 7+ goals — 12¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 19%) - Will USA score at least 10 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 10+ goals — 5¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 16%) - Will USA score at least 8 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 8+ goals — 4¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 34%) - Will USA score at least 12 goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 12+ goals — 3¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 16%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T21:20:07.394Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "43% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcteamgoals Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20USA%20score%20at%20least%205%20goals%20in%20the%20group%20stage%20of%20the%202026%20Men's%20FIFA%20World%20Cup Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev