43% — Will USA score over 0.5 goals
Kalshi 43% · 20 contracts · $19K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 23:48:28 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract reflects a 47% probability that the USA will score at least one goal in an upcoming match. The current odds suggest roughly even chances, indicating uncertainty about offensive performance. Key factors influencing this probability include the USA's recent scoring form, the opponent's defensive capabilities, and squad composition for the match. The contract will resolve once the match concludes and final goal totals are confirmed. Market participants are pricing in moderate offensive output, with the probability sitting below 50%, suggesting either defensive challenges ahead or a difficult opponent. The resolution depends entirely on the actual match result, which represents the primary catalyst for settling this contract.

Key factors:
- USA's historical scoring rate in recent competitive matches compared to the opponent's defensive record
- Team sheet availability and whether key offensive players are fit and selected for the match
- Opponent identity and defensive strength, as some teams concede fewer chances than others
- Match context such as home/away status, tournament stage, and tactical approach both teams are likely to employ
- Recent form trends showing whether USA has been creating and converting scoring opportunities consistently

Contracts:
- Will Norway score over 0.5 goals?: Norway over 0.5 goals — 64¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 25%)
- Will Argentina score over 2.5 goals?: Argentina over 2.5 goals — 49¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 12%)
- Will France score over 1.5 goals?: France over 1.5 goals — 60¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 10%)
- Will England score over 0.5 goals?: England over 0.5 goals — 94¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 8%)
- Will Portugal score over 3.5 goals?: Portugal over 3.5 goals — 7¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 7%)
- Will Algeria score over 1.5 goals?: Algeria over 1.5 goals — 23¢ Kalshi $821 (weight 4%)
- Will Austria score over 0.5 goals?: Austria over 0.5 goals — 70¢ Kalshi $749 (weight 4%)
- Will France score over 0.5 goals?: France over 0.5 goals — 87¢ Kalshi $694 (weight 4%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:51.933Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "43% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcteamtotal
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20USA%20score%20over%200.5%20goals
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev