28% — Will Australia score at least 6 goals in the full tournament of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Kalshi 28% · 9 contracts · $757 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-28 04:10:22 UTC Why this matters: This market contracts on whether Australia will score 6 or more goals across all matches in the 2026 FIFA World Cup tournament. The 20% probability reflects skepticism about Australia reaching that offensive threshold despite qualifying for the tournament. Historical performance matters significantly—Australia averaged around 1.5 goals per match in recent World Cup campaigns, suggesting 6+ goals would require both a longer tournament run and improved attacking output. The primary factors driving this probability are Australia's typical group-stage elimination and moderate goal-scoring consistency relative to stronger competitors. The 2026 tournament structure, with expanded group stages and 80+ total matches, theoretically increases scoring opportunities. Market resolution will depend entirely on Australia's actual match results starting in June 2026, with uncertainty currently high given the tournament remains months away and squad composition remains subject to change. Key factors: - Australia's historical World Cup scoring rate has ranged from 2-5 goals per tournament in recent editions (2014-2022), making 6+ goals moderately ambitious - The tournament format expansion to 48 teams and 80 matches may slightly increase goal-scoring variance, but Australia's group assignment and knockout performance will be decisive - Australia's typical exit in group stage or early knockout rounds limits total match opportunities; advancing deep would substantially increase probability of reaching 6 goals - Squad attacking quality relative to peer competitors—strikers' form, injury status, and tactical adjustments leading into June 2026 will materially affect goal-scoring efficiency - Market comparison data shows Argentina at 45% for 10+ goals and Belgium at 27% for 10+ goals, contextualizing Australia's 20% for 6+ as conservative relative to tournament-wide scoring distributions Contracts: - Will Mexico score at least 10 goals in the full tournament of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 10+ goals — 21¢ Kalshi $361 (weight 48%) - Will Norway score at least 13 goals in the full tournament of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 13+ goals — 21¢ Kalshi $126 (weight 17%) - Will France score at least 19 goals in the full tournament of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 19+ goals — 20¢ Kalshi $125 (weight 16%) - Will USA score at least 12 goals in the full tournament of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 12+ goals — 11¢ Kalshi $33 (weight 4%) - Will Mexico score at least 8 goals in the full tournament of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 8+ goals — 21¢ Kalshi $31 (weight 4%) - Will Norway score at least 9 goals in the full tournament of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 9+ goals — 86¢ Kalshi $30 (weight 4%) - Will Brazil score at least 14 goals in the full tournament of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 14+ goals — 25¢ Kalshi $27 (weight 4%) - Will USA score at least 14 goals in the full tournament of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 14+ goals — 28¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 2%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-28T03:20:50.295Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "28% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcteamtotalgoals Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Australia%20score%20at%20least%206%20goals%20in%20the%20full%20tournament%20of%20the%202026%20Men's%20FIFA%20World%20Cup Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev