10% — Will Brazil win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup
Kalshi 10% · 10 contracts · $387 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-28 18:07:20 UTC

Why this matters:
A 10% probability means prediction markets estimate roughly a 1-in-10 chance Brazil wins the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup. This positions Brazil as a moderate contender, trailing USA (15%) and Spain (16%) but ahead of Germany (4%). Brazil's ranking reflects both historical strength—the nation has won the tournament twice—and recent performance trends in women's football. The tournament occurs in summer 2027, giving time for roster development, coaching changes, and form shifts across all nations. Key drivers of this probability include Brazil's current FIFA ranking in women's football, performance in qualifying matches leading into 2027, and comparison to rival nations' recent trajectories. Major tournaments and qualification results over the next 18 months will likely shift market expectations materially. The CONMEBOL qualifying campaign will be a critical data point for assessing Brazil's competitive position relative to other contenders.

Key factors:
- Brazil's current FIFA women's ranking and recent performance in international matches versus competitor nations
- Results from CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying matches and regional competitions through 2027
- Coaching stability and roster depth at Brazilian FA, including player injuries and retirements
- Comparative momentum and investment in women's football programs among top contenders like USA, Spain, and England
- Historical tournament performance trends showing whether Brazil maintains or declines relative to rising programs in women's football

Contracts:
- Will Colombia win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: Colombia — 4¢ Kalshi $234 (weight 60%)
- Will Brazil win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: Brazil — 9¢ Kalshi $81 (weight 21%)
- Will Spain win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: Spain — 22¢ Kalshi $44 (weight 11%)
- Will USA win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: USA — 17¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 5%)
- Will England win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: England — 10¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 2%)
- Will Japan win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: Japan — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will France win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: France — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Germany win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup?: Germany — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-07-28T17:20:51.228Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wcw
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Brazil%20win%20the%202027%20FIFA%20Women's%20World%20Cup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev