92% — Will Wendy's Company (The) report Above -10% u.s. same-restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026 Leader: Above -10% at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 6 contracts · $959 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 14:01:07 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets estimate an 89% probability that Wendy's U.S. same-restaurant sales will decline less than 10% in Q2 2026, meaning traders expect sales declines in the single digits or better. This reflects expectations about consumer spending patterns and competitive pressures in quick-service restaurants during spring 2026. The high probability leans heavily on avoiding the worst-case scenario of double-digit declines, though contract prices reveal substantial uncertainty about whether sales actually grow (4% probability) or stay flat (11% probability). Wendy's earnings report—typically released 4-6 weeks after quarter-end in late July or early August—will provide the definitive same-store sales figure. Until then, near-term factors like consumer confidence data, employment reports, and comparable-store sales trends from peer restaurants will influence how traders reassess the probability. Key factors: - Consumer spending momentum and confidence levels in spring 2026 directly affect quick-service restaurant traffic and ticket sizes - Competitive promotional activity and market share dynamics among major QSR chains influence whether Wendy's sales trend better or worse than category averages - Labor costs and commodity inflation impact pricing decisions, affecting same-store sales performance relative to historical baselines - The market assigns only 11% probability to sales above -2.5%, indicating traders expect moderately negative comps rather than positive growth - Wendy's Q2 2026 earnings release (expected late July or early August 2026) will settle the contract with actual reported same-restaurant sales growth Contracts: - Will Wendy's Company (The) report Above -10% u.s. same-restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above -10% — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Wendy's Company (The) report Above -7.5% u.s. same-restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above -7.5% — 86¢ Kalshi $391 (weight 41%) - Will Wendy's Company (The) report Above -5% u.s. same-restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above -5% — 50¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 1%) - Will Wendy's Company (The) report Above -2.5% u.s. same-restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above -2.5% — 19¢ Kalshi $557 (weight 58%) - Will Wendy's Company (The) report Above 0% u.s. same-restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 0% — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Wendy's Company (The) report Above 2.5% u.s. same-restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 2.5% — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T13:20:49.909Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wen Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Wendy's%20Company%20(The)%20report%20Above%20-10%25%20u.s.%20same-restaurant%20sales%20growth%20in%20Q2%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev