97% — Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.70 Leader: At least $8.66 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 7 contracts · $399 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-09 21:03:14 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates whether the average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator will reach at least $8.70 in July 2026, with traders currently assigning 94% probability to prices at $8.66 or above. The steep pricing structure suggests consensus around a narrow range between $8.66 and $8.71, reflecting expectations that inflation and menu price adjustments will push the sandwich into this zone. Historical Baconator pricing trends, Wendy's corporate guidance on menu inflation, and actual July 2026 pricing data—available after month-end—will determine the outcome. The declining probabilities across higher price thresholds indicate traders expect prices closer to $8.66-$8.68 rather than exceeding $8.71, though confidence diminishes sharply above $8.70. Resolution depends on verified average pricing across U.S. locations by early August 2026. Key factors: - Historical Baconator pricing trajectory from 2024-2026 relative to inflation rate and Wendy's stated menu adjustment policies - Regional pricing variation and whether the U.S. average calculation method weights by location density or counts equally - Wendy's second-quarter 2026 earnings guidance and any announced menu price changes taking effect in July 2026 - Competitor pricing actions by McDonald's, Burger King, and other fast-casual chains affecting demand and price elasticity - Actual transaction data from July 2026 showing average Baconator prices at sampled U.S. Wendy's locations Contracts: - Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.66?: At least $8.66 — 97¢ Kalshi $114 (weight 29%) - Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.67?: At least $8.67 — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.68?: At least $8.68 — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.69?: At least $8.69 — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.70?: At least $8.70 — 34¢ Kalshi $285 (weight 71%) - Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.71?: At least $8.71 — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.72?: At least $8.72 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-09T20:20:48.881Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wenbaconator Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20U.S.%20price%20of%20a%20Wendy's%20Baconator%20for%20July%202026%20be%20at%20least%20%248.70 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev