75% — Will Wendy's Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 86.5
Leader: Above 85 at 75% · Kalshi 75% · 13 contracts · $165 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 16:23:33 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability represents whether Wendy's total monthly credit card spending will exceed $86.5 million in August 2026. The market is pricing this outcome near 50%, suggesting meaningful uncertainty around where spend will land within a narrow range—contracts cluster between 85 and 87 with nearly identical pricing. The primary drivers are Wendy's promotional activity and consumer frequency during the month, as credit card spend directly reflects transaction volume and average check size. Resolution will occur when Wendy's reports August financial data, likely in September. Historically, summer months show seasonal variations in quick-service restaurant traffic, and back-to-school consumer behavior patterns beginning late August could create upward or downward pressure. The tight clustering of contracts near the $86.5 threshold suggests market participants view this outcome as genuinely uncertain rather than tilted toward either direction.

Key factors:
- August 2026 promotional calendar and discount intensity compared to historical summer periods
- Back-to-school consumer spending patterns beginning late August and their impact on Wendy's frequency
- Weather conditions and summer travel patterns affecting foot traffic during the measurement period
- Competitive promotional activity from other QSR chains potentially affecting market share
- Historical August credit card spend baseline and deviation range from prior years

Contracts:
- Will Wendy's Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 85 ?: Above 85 — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Wendy's Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 85.5 ?: Above 85.5 — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Wendy's Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 86 ?: Above 86 — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Wendy's Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 86.5 ?: Above 86.5 — 52¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 8%)
- Will Wendy's Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 87 ?: Above 87 — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Wendy's Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 87.5 ?: Above 87.5 — 49¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Wendy's Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 88 ?: Above 88 — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Wendy's Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 88.5 ?: Above 88.5 — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T15:20:51.446Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "75% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/wencc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Wendy's%20Monthly%20Credit%20Card%20Spend%20for%20August%202026%20be%20above%2086.5
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev