34% — West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner: AITC
Polymarket 34% · 5 contracts · $26K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 19:32:54 UTC

Contracts:
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Marco Rubio — 16¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 53%)
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Gavin Newsom — 16¢ Polymarket $9K (weight 35%)
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Tucker Carlson — 3¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 12%)
- Maine Senate Election Winner: Republican — 37¢ Polymarket $94 (weight 0%)
- West Virginia Senate Election Winner: Republican — 96¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/west-bengal-legislative-assembly-election-winner-aitc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=West%20Bengal%20Legislative%20Assembly%20Election%20Winner%3A%20AITC
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev