17% — What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $280
Leader: ↑ $280 at 17% · Polymarket 17% · 2 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 22:18:19 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract reflects market expectations that Amazon's stock will touch $256 or below at some point during May 2026, currently priced at 45% probability. The leading bearish outcome dominates over the bullish $280+ scenarios, suggesting traders are pricing in either consolidation or downside pressure on the stock this month. The gap between the bearish ($256 and below) and bullish ($280 and above) contracts indicates uncertainty about Amazon's near-term direction. Key drivers include broader tech sector momentum, earnings announcements or guidance revisions, macroeconomic factors affecting cloud and consumer spending, and any significant company-specific news. The resolution depends entirely on whether Amazon's intraday or closing price touches these specific levels before May 31, 2026, making it sensitive to daily volatility and market moves rather than fundamental changes.

Key factors:
- Amazon's current price proximity to $256 and $280 strike levels—distance from current spot determines probability of intraday touches
- 24h trading volume concentration ($3,428 on $280 call, $2,870 on $256 put) shows active disagreement between bullish and bearish traders
- The $256 contract leading at 45% versus $280 at 24% suggests marginal bearish lean, not strong conviction—only 21-point price gap to breach
- Remaining calendar days in May and historical volatility patterns for AMZN during this period affect likelihood of touching either boundary
- Any AWS earnings, macro data releases, or Fed communications in late May could create the volatility needed to touch extreme price levels

Contracts:
- What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $280 — 17¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 95%)
- What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $288 — 4¢ Polymarket $222 (weight 5%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T21:20:07.297Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-amazoncom-inc-amzn-hit-may
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Amazon.com%2C%20Inc.%20(AMZN)%20hit%20in%20May%202026%3F%3A%20%E2%86%91%20%24280
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev