43% — What animals will Trump say in May Leader: Chicken at 43% · Polymarket 43% · 16 contracts · $156 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 19:58:54 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 16 outcomes. Why this matters: This prediction estimates the likelihood that Donald Trump will mention at least one animal by name during public statements in May 2026. The 50% probability on 'Cat' reflects uncertainty about both Trump's speaking frequency and whether his remarks will include animal references. The current distribution suggests 'Chicken' (40¢) and 'Kangaroo' (24¢) are secondary expectations, indicating traders anticipate either multiple animal mentions or concentration around common references. The outcome resolves based on documented public statements—speeches, interviews, social media posts, or press conferences—during the calendar month. Factors influencing this probability include Trump's scheduled appearances and communication patterns, the specificity required for resolution (whether partial names or clear animal references count), and historical baselines from previous months. May 31, 2026 marks the final deadline for statements to be included in resolution. Key factors: - Trump's confirmed public speaking schedule and media availability for May 2026 affects the probability of any animal mention occurring - Market pricing divergence ('Cat' at 48¢ vs 'Chicken' at 40¢) suggests disagreement on whether references will be deliberate or incidental - Resolution criteria interpretation—whether colloquial animal references ('piggy bank') or only direct animal names qualify—materially affects contract outcomes - Historical frequency of Trump mentioning specific animals in prior months provides baseline for assessing whether May follows typical patterns - Competition between 16 distinct animal contracts means total probabilities exceed 100%, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus Contracts: - What animals will Trump say in May?: Chicken — 43¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 3%) - What animals will Trump say in May?: Rabbit / Bunny — 40¢ Polymarket $8 (weight 5%) - What animals will Trump say in May?: Turtle — 37¢ Polymarket $6 (weight 4%) - What animals will Trump say in May?: Goat — 30¢ Polymarket $31 (weight 20%) - What animals will Trump say in May?: Hawk — 29¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 3%) - What animals will Trump say in May?: Cat — 23¢ Polymarket $10 (weight 6%) - What animals will Trump say in May?: Kangaroo — 22¢ Polymarket $7 (weight 4%) - What animals will Trump say in May?: Wolf — 20¢ Polymarket $35 (weight 22%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T19:20:07.380Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "43% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-animals-trump-say-may Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20animals%20will%20Trump%20say%20in%20May Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev