31% — What will Apple (AAPL) hit in April 2026?: ↑ $292 Polymarket 31% · 17 contracts · $58K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-21 09:29:29 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 31% probability that Apple's stock price will reach $292 or higher during April 2026. The current pricing reflects moderate skepticism about Apple achieving this target within the specified timeframe. The probability is influenced by Apple's recent stock performance, broader market conditions, and the company's ability to deliver growth catalysts such as new product announcements or earnings beats. Resolution will be determined by Apple's actual stock price during April 2026, with the outcome depending heavily on macroeconomic factors, technology sector momentum, and company-specific developments over the coming months. Current market sentiment suggests traders view this price level as attainable but not the base case. Key factors: - Apple's closing price in April 2026 must reach $292 to resolve affirmatively; the market currently prices in moderate skepticism about this outcome occurring within the specified month - Broader equity market performance and technology sector valuations in early 2026 will significantly influence Apple's stock trajectory independent of company-specific factors - Apple's Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings reports and forward guidance will be key data points affecting investor sentiment and stock performance leading into April - Macroeconomic conditions including interest rates and inflation trends between now and April 2026 will impact market risk appetite and growth stock valuations - Historical volatility in Apple's stock and current technical levels relative to the $292 target provide context for assessing the difficulty of reaching this price within a single month Contracts: - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 100,000 — 16¢ Polymarket $16K (weight 27%) - What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000 — 25¢ Polymarket $10K (weight 18%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000 — 40¢ Polymarket $7K (weight 12%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000 — 72¢ Polymarket $6K (weight 10%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000 — 53¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 9%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 90,000 — 28¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 5%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000 — 30¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 4%) - What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 60 — 72¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 3%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-apple-aapl-hit-april Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Apple%20(AAPL)%20hit%20in%20April%202026%3F%3A%20%E2%86%91%20%24292 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev