47% — What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 5 Gwei Leader: 10 Gwei at 47% · Polymarket 47% · 6 contracts · $1 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-19 14:39:09 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: This represents traders' assessment that Ethereum's average monthly gas prices will reach 5 Gwei at some point before 2027—currently priced at 55% likelihood. Gas prices on Ethereum depend primarily on network congestion and demand for block space. They fluctuate based on transaction volume, which is driven by DeFi activity, NFT trading, and broader crypto market participation. The current 55% probability reflects moderate confidence this threshold will be breached, though significant uncertainty remains. Key drivers include whether Ethereum adoption accelerates, whether Layer 2 solutions reduce pressure on mainnet capacity, and macro market conditions affecting on-chain activity. The absence of a single resolution date means gas prices must hit this level at any point during the remaining months of 2026 for the contract to settle affirmatively. Key factors: - Current Ethereum base fees typically range 20-100+ Gwei during peak periods; reaching 5 Gwei would require sustained low network usage or represents historical levels from bear markets - Layer 2 adoption (Arbitrum, Optimism, Base) directly reduces mainnet transaction demand and gas competition, lowering prices independently of broader market conditions - Macro crypto cycles and retail participation spikes drive volatile on-chain activity; bull markets historically produce elevated gas fees, while bear markets see reduced competition for block space - Ethereum protocol upgrades or fee-burning mechanism changes could alter gas dynamics, though no major scheduled updates target gas reduction before year-end 2026 - The 47% runner-up contract suggests meaningful disagreement among traders on whether sustained sub-5-Gwei levels are achievable under realistic network demand scenarios Contracts: - What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 10 Gwei — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 5 Gwei — 31¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 15 Gwei — 13¢ Polymarket $1 (weight 100%) - What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 25 Gwei — 11¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 20 Gwei — 10¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 40 Gwei — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-hit Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20the%20average%20monthly%20Ethereum%20gas%20price%20hit%20before%202027%3F%3A%205%20Gwei Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev