22% — What will Bitcoin outperform in April?: NVIDIA (NVDA)
Polymarket 22% · 17 contracts · $168K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:42:44 UTC

Contracts:
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000 — 72¢ Polymarket $40K (weight 24%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 90,000 — 27¢ Polymarket $34K (weight 20%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 100,000 — 19¢ Polymarket $17K (weight 10%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000 — 56¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 9%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000 — 41¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 8%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000 — 30¢ Polymarket $13K (weight 8%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 160,000 — 4¢ Polymarket $12K (weight 7%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000 — 14¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 2%)
- ... and 9 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:12.703Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-bitcoin-outperform-april
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Bitcoin%20outperform%20in%20April%3F%3A%20NVIDIA%20(NVDA)
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev