36% — What will the Bitcoin realized volatility index hit by April 30?: ↑ 80
Polymarket 36% · 11 contracts · $111K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:13:07 UTC

Contracts:
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000 — 71¢ Polymarket $40K (weight 36%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000 — 56¢ Polymarket $15K (weight 13%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000 — 41¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 13%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000 — 31¢ Polymarket $13K (weight 12%)
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500 — 83¢ Polymarket $11K (weight 10%)
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000 — 21¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 4%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000 — 14¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 4%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000 — 8¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 4%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.059Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/what-bitcoin-realized-volatility-index-hit-april-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20the%20Bitcoin%20realized%20volatility%20index%20hit%20by%20April%2030%3F%3A%20%E2%86%91%2080
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev